WMO Major Climate Update
GENEVA, Switzerland - September 3, 2026
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a major climate update today, confirming that a powerful El Niño event is firmly established across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is forecast to intensify into a "very strong" event with near 100% probability of persisting through February 2027.
According to data compiled by the WMO and its global climate forecasting centers, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific have surged significantly, reaching anomalies between +2.2°C and +2.6°C above historical averages in mid-August, with subsurface water temperatures exceeding +8°C above average in key sectors. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the event could rank among the strongest observed since modern meteorological record-keeping began, creating heightened risks of prolonged drought, severe heatwaves, and extreme precipitation across various regions worldwide.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that the ocean warming cycle is compounding existing global heat trends, placing critical socio-economic sectors-including agriculture, water management, energy, and logistics-in a high-risk zone. In response to the forecast, the WMO and UN humanitarian agencies have initiated coordinated early-warning protocols with national meteorological services to assist governments in preparing disaster risk reduction strategies and infrastructure resilience plans ahead of the peak impacts expected in late 2026 and early 2027.
